If you're looking for the The AMSI Infectious Disease Modelling Workshop 2013, please click here.

Friday 3rd February, 2012, 9am – 4pm
Russel Love Theatre
Richard Berry Building (Building 160)
University of Melbourne, Parkville campus

Information about the workshop.

Workshop program and useful references.

Background

A personal perspective . . .

Traditional epidemiological approaches cannot be easily applied to all public health policy questions relating to communicable (infectious) diseases. For example, strategic planning for antiviral-drug distribution in an influenza pandemic requires simulation of the likely effects of large scale deployment. Short of undertaking a whole-of-population experiment, thereby unreasonably depleting the very resource one is attempting to understand how to use, the outcomes can only be predicted, and informed policy developed, using modelling techniques.

Routinely applied to challenges in physics, climate science and economics, mathematical modelling provides an alternative when biological and public health problems are not amenable to randomised controlled experiments.

Modelling studies rely on detailed and accurate biological and epidemiological data for parameterisation. Without it, they contribute little to public health policy development. Conversely, well informed models may be influential, as evidenced by policy development for HIV, SARS and pandemic influenza. Traditional statistical measures assist in identifying key associations of variables with outcomes. Disease transmission models then use this information to explicitly characterise the processes by which these factors influence outcomes. Once validated against data, imposing

hypothetical interventions within these model frameworks allows for optimisation of interventions through computer simulation. Furthermore, modelling studies highlight where data is lacking, guiding design of future experimental investigations.

In this workshop you will be introduced to the basic tools used by infectious disease modelling researchers, and hear on ‘Work-in-Progress’ from active researchers and PhD candidates in the field.

Geoff Mercer and James McCaw
Workshop Convenors

Program